There are more interesting articles, commentaries and analyst reports on the Web every week than anyone could read in a month.
Each Saturday morning I like to share some of the ones I’ve read during the week.
The weekend will be over before you know it, so enjoy some weekend reading.
Optimism is growing towards Australia’s housing market
Despite ‘scare tactic’ headlines – it would seem things are slightly looking up for the property market.
This article on Business Insider looks at the results that indicate optimistic signs.
Australian capital city home prices have fallen for 19 consecutive months, equaling the downturn seen at the start of the decade, at least in terms of duration.
This downturn has been significantly larger when it comes to how far prices have fallen.
Values are still declining, according to updated figures from CoreLogic released Wednesday, with the median capital city price slipping by a further 0.5% in April in average weighted terms, extending the drop from a year earlier to 8.4%.
Since peaking in September 2017, Australia’s median capital city home price has now fallen 10.3%.
With the exception of Canberra, values fell across all other capital city markets last month, and in regional areas.
Pretty much wherever you looked, there was information for Australia’s housing bears to chew on.
It’s been that way for a while now.
However, while price falls have broadened across the country, it’s clear the rate of decline nationally has slowed.
Around the turn of the year, monthly capital city declines topped 1%, led by even larger falls in Australia’s largest and most expensive markets, Sydney and Melbourne.
But now they’re only half that pace, and the trend definitely suggests that may continue in the months ahead.
Here’s an informative charts from Westpac Bank that suggest the worst of the downturn may now be over.
It shows the three-month change in capital city prices in annualised terms, after seasonal patterns have been removed.
While still a stretch to say prices may soon bottom, the pace of declines have decelerated, rather than accelerated, since the early parts of the year.
Aside from the impact macroprudential restrictions from Australia’s banking regulator, <a href="https://propertyupdate.com.au/glossary/apra/" data-cmtooltip="The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) is an independent statutory authority that supervises institutions across banking, insurance and superannuation and promotes financial system stability in Australia
Prudential regulation is concerned with maintaining the safety and soundness(…)” class=”glossaryLink ” target=”_blank”>APRA, on investor and interest-only lending on prices in recent years, the other noteworthy element of the chart is the influence rate cuts from the RBA have had on valuations in the past.When the RBA has eased policy, prices typically begin to increase soon after.
It’s no secret that most involved in financial markets believe the RBA will cut Australia’s cash rate again this year.
Even though there’s now greater scrutiny being applied to household expenses and existing debt levels for prospective borrowers, potentially limiting the amount that banks are willing or able to lend, the prior record of rate cuts suggests lower mortgage rates will provide additional support for prices.
Read the full article here
Time to release the brakes
It would seem the credit squeeze has continues, with very little change.
This Blog by Pete Wargen looks at what we can expect. 
Credit squeeze continued through March
Housing credit growth slowed to just 3.99 per cent in March 2019.
Word from bank economists is that housing finance was softer through March (before picking up again in April) and this view is supported by the latest Reserve Bank figures.
For a country at the tail-end of a construction boom and with a ballooning population in the prime homebuying age brackets this is a remarkably low figure.
In fact, it’s the lowest housing credit growth on record.
Investor credit growth also slowed to the lowest level on record in March 2019, at 0.7 per cent over the year.
Read the full article here
5 reasons why more Aussies are relocating
Why are more and more Aussie’s relocating?
In this article for Switzer, John McGrath explains what’s really going on.
Recent population data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and analysed by CoreLogic shows 394,200 interstate arrivals nationwide in the year to September 2018, just shy of the 30-year record of September 2003, when 397,200 people undertook interstate relocations.
Here are some key reasons why Australians are increasingly willing to make a big change in where they live.
1. Cheaper house prices
Lower house prices are always a key reason for people relocating from the big cities, primarily Sydney and Melbourne.
It’s no surprise that record high interstate migration coincides with the final years of property booms in these cities.
In the year to September 2018, NSW recorded its biggest net loss of residents in a decade, with 22,113 people leaving Australia’s biggest city for greener pastures.
Some departees head to other major cities, such as Brisbane or the Gold Coast, where there are employment opportunities and homes are cheaper.
Others go to regional cities where wages are not so different from the big cities in many industries but house prices are vastly lower.
2. It’s about lifestyle
The increasingly hectic hustle and bustle of our two biggest cities are starting to play on people’s nerves.
Many mums and dads in Sydney, in particular, complain of long commutes to work – exacerbated by ongoing population growth, resulting in less time with their families at home.
Life in regional areas is much easier, with work and recreation options all a short distance away.
Many of our regional agents are meeting many city departees who are citing traffic and overcrowding as major reasons for their relocation away from the big CBDs, with cheaper house prices secondary.
3. Let’s talk about the weather
Weather is also a factor in some interstate migration, with the well-worn path from Melbourne and Sydney to South-East Queensland still a popular choice amongst young families, downsizers and retirees.
The data showed arrivals from NSW and Victoria to Queensland were at their highest levels in around 15 years.
NSW arrivals alone accounted for almost half of the Sunshine State’s total interstate arrivals in the year to September 2018.
It is also interesting to note that arrivals from NSW and Queensland to Tasmania, where the weather is noticeably cooler, were also at their highest levels since 2004 and 2008 respectively.
Australians have traditionally always chased the sun but perhaps climate change impacts, such as more 40-degree days in summer, might persuade more people to venture south in future years?
4. And then there’s transport improvements
We continue to see families from Sydney and Melbourne moving to commuter towns within 90 minutes of the CBD, such as the Central Coast and Wollongong in NSW and Geelong and Ballarat in Victoria, where homes are cheaper and better transport makes commuting easier than ever before.
Semi retirees or senior executives who only need to be in the CBD periodically are increasingly seeking a change of pace in lifestyle locations such as Port Macquarie, Byron Bay and the Blue Mountains, where improvements in air services and roads have enabled a faster commute.
5. Technology and work flexibility changes
Advances in technology are allowing many people to escape the big city life and commence start-ups in beautiful lifestyle locations.
Forward-thinking organisations are also allowing more flexible work arrangements, such as letting some employees work from home.
In such cases, many families have relocated to lifestyle areas that have easy transport options back to the cities.
All they need is a strong broadband connection.
Read the full article here
Record low inflation reading puts pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates
With the RBA results only days away, the question remains – Are we in for an Interest Rate cut?
An article on Abc.net.au explains why a cut may be on the horizon.
The Reserve Bank is under more pressure to cut interest rates after inflation fell further below its target band.
Core inflation —an average of the trimmed mean and weighted median measures and regarded as the RBA’s preferred inflation measure — came in at 1.4 per cent over the year, the weakest reading since the series started in 2003.
It has now been stuck below the RBA’s 2-3 per cent target band for three years.
Headline inflation — which includes volatile items such as fresh food and fuel — was flat over the quarter, and dropped from the 1.8 per cent recorded over 2018 to 1.3 per cent at the end of March.
A fall in fuel prices (-8.7 per cent) and travel costs balanced out significant hikes in vegetable prices (+5.8 per cent) caused by the unhappy confluence of both drought and floods in the first three months of year.
The cost of secondary education (+4.2 per cent) and motor vehicles (+2.4 per cent) also hit households’ pockets.
The overall weakness in headline inflation can be sheeted home to items that have a relatively large weight in the CPI basket, such as clothing, new dwelling purchases, travel and accommodation, and electricity.
May rate cut better than 50-50 chance
The weaker than expected data sent the Australian dollar tumbling almost 1 per cent.
At 1:38pm (AEST), the dollar was buying 70.34 US cents as traders’ expectations of an interest rate cut in coming months increased.
NAB’s economics team said the softer than expected result raises the possibility of a rate cut at the RBA’s May meeting in two weeks.
“Today’s data, in our view, seems to meet part one [inflation] of the [RBA] board’s criteria and perhaps more, given core inflation has actually moved the wrong way,” NAB said.
Indeed, money markets are now pricing in a better-than-50 per cent chance of an RBA rate cut next month.
The inflation data follows a slight uptick in unemployment.
A continued rise in monthly jobless figures would meet the RBA’s other condition for a rate cut.
Indeed economist Callam Pickering said the RBA may as well cut rates now.
Read the full article here
The suburb with streets straight out of Game of Thrones
Residents of a local Geelong suburb have certainly taken their love of Game of Thrones to the streets – literally.
An article on Realestate.com.au visits the suburb where each street has been names after the medieval show.
A creative Geelong growth area suburb would have to be one of the best places in Australia for a Game of Thrones super fan to build their castle.
Streets in the nascent Charlemont community on the city’s southern fringe are named after families from the mammoth medieval hit.
Buyers could find themselves receiving ravens to addresses on Catelyn Rd, Stannis St, Winterfell Rd, Greyjoy St, Baelish Drive and Tywin St.
Bryce and Lisa Torney and son William live on Winterfell Rd, Charlemont.
But the Lannaster Rd street sign lost its head a few seasons ago after a complaint from a neighbouring estate because of that particular family’s romantic brother-sister relationship.
Charlemont Rise project manager Gary Smith said at the time he had even changed the spelling of the name from Lannister to Lannaster to make it less obvious, but to no avail.
The name was knocked back by the Office of Geographic names and City of Greater Geelong then voted in favour of renaming the street.
It’s now the adequately inoffensive Precinct Rd, in reference to it having the local shops.
Read the full article here
Weekend video: Everything You’ve Ever Wanted To Know About Coffee
