Mortgage rates today, May 2, 2019, plus lock recommendations

What’s driving current mortgage rates?

As we predicted, it was a quiet day for average mortgage rates yesterday. They inched down by the smallest measurable amount. You’ll hardly have noticed this week’s movements, but this latest easing was welcome after a couple of days of similarly small rises.

It’s beginning to look as if this week’s mini-tsunami of economic reports won’t change much, after all. Yesterday’s Fed meeting press conference went as expected. And no new clear direction has emerged in markets. But there’s still time for today’s and tomorrow’s reports to have an impact, though good news this morning had little effect. Look out in particular for tomorrow’s official employment situation report.

The data below the rate table are indicative of mortgage rates holding steady today or perhaps just edging either side of (probably higher) the neutral line. However, plenty can change over coming hours.

» MORE: Check Today’s Rates from Top Lenders (May 2, 2019)

Financial data affecting today’s mortgage rates

First thing this morning, markets looked set to deliver unchanged or barely changed mortgage rates today. By approaching 10:00 a.m. (ET), the data, compared with this time yesterday, were:

• Major stock indexes were mixed but mostly somewhat lower soon after opening (slightly good for mortgage rates). When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of Treasuries down and increases yields. See below for a detailed explanation
• Gold prices tumbled to $ 1,270 from $ 1,283. (Bad for mortgage rates) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower)
• Oil prices fell to $ 62 from $ 64 a barrel (good for mortgage rates, because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation)
• The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose to 2.52 percent from 2.48 percent. (Bad for borrowers). More than any other market, mortgage rates tend to follow these particular Treasury yields
•  CNNMoney’s Fear & Greed Index fell to 62 yesterday evening from 65 out of a possible 100. Unusually, it wasn’t updated this morning. Yesterday’s movement was good for borrowers. “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

Unless things change, today might be a quiet or slightly worse day for mortgage rates.

Verify your new rate (May 2, 2019)

Rate lock recommendation

Consider buying discount points

Mortgage News Daily (MND) made a good case recently for purchasing discount points. For some borrowers, these are currently unusually cheap and represent good value. However, not all lenders are offering these bargains and their availability may change with market conditions. So you should explore your options with your loan officer or another professional.

Here’s MND’s thinking: “… for most lenders, it makes almost no sense to lock a rate of 4.25% or 4.75% today (assuming a conventional 30yr fixed…) because the cost to buy down to 4.125% and 4.625% respectively is so much smaller than normal.”

Trends

Trends are impossible to discern from just a few days’ changes. So don’t read too much into recent fluctuations. Frustrating though it is, there really is no way of knowing immediately what movements over a brief period mean in their wider context.

Even when one’s discernable, trends in markets never last forever. And, even within a long-term one, there will be ups and downs. Eventually, at some point, enough investors decide to cut losses or take profits to form a critical mass. And then they’ll buy or sell in ways that end that trend. That’s going to happen with mortgage rates. Nobody knows when or how sharply a trend will reverse. But it will. That might not be wildly helpful but you need to bear it in mind. Floating always comes with some risk.

Of course, it’s possible the Federal Reserve’s March statement on rates has established a long-term downward trend. But you can still expect to see rises and falls (such as those over the last several weeks) within it as other risk factors emerge and recede. And, depending on how near you are to your closing date, you may not have time to ride out any increases.

Risks from a future recession

Of course, a recession couldn’t, by definition, arise before you close. But the more investors suspect there’s one on the horizon, the lower mortgage rates are likely to go.

Last Friday’s better-than-expected GDP figures should have provided markets with some respite from such fears. But they didn’t react positively to the data. That day’s New York Times suggested why that might be the case:

Economists warned that the [GDP] report was inflated by short-term factors and probably overstated the underlying pace of growth. Most anticipate a downshift as the year progresses, and hardly any independent economists expect that President Trump will be able to deliver the 3 percent growth he has promised this year.

So, amid conflicting economic data,  markets seem unable to make up their minds what the future holds. If and when they do, mortgage rates could rise (on optimism) or fall (on pessimism).

China threat

Meanwhile, markets are regaining focus on current U.S.-China trade talks. Both sides have worked long (President Trump’s original deadline passed many weeks ago) and hard to iron out problems.

There are now signs the U.S. may be making concessions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are currently in Beijing for the latest round of talks. And, on Wednesday night, the South China Morning Post cited reports that:

… Trump has softened his administration’s opening negotiating position from what it originally characterised as “Chinese government-conducted, sponsored, and tolerated cyber intrusions into US commercial networks”… Since trade talks resumed in December, Washington and Beijing say they have made gains on various issues, including intellectual property, forced technology transfer and non-tariff barriers. But an enforcement mechanism and punitive tariffs remain sticking points.

Certainly, both sides badly need a good outcome, and for similar reasons: First, to burnish political prestige domestically by bringing home a win. And secondly, to step back from economic slowdowns.

However, some worry those pressures will prevent a win-win conclusion — and might even result in no deal being reached or a lose-lose one. Once the talks end, investors will digest the outcome in detail. If no deal is concluded, or if the one that’s agreed turns out to be worse than neutral for the U.S., expect mortgage rates to tumble. But, if it’s a win-win — or even just not too terrible and simply brings uncertainty to an end — they could rise.

We suggest

Yesterday’s Fed announcement didn’t move policy on that declared after March’s meeting. That was doveish and ruled out further rate hikes this year And it will likely continue to add some downward pressure on mortgage rates in coming months. As we’ve seen in recent weeks, that doesn’t mean there aren’t other risks (currently known and unknown) that could see them rise, possibly sharply. We suggest that you lock if you’re less than 30 days from closing.

Of course, financially conservative borrowers might want to lock immediately, almost regardless of when they’re due to close. On the other hand, risk takers might prefer to bide their time. Only you can decide on the level of risk with which you’re personally comfortable.

If you are still floating, do remain vigilant right up until you lock. Continue to watch key markets and news cycles closely. In particular, look out for stories that might affect the performance of the American economy. As a very general rule, good news tends to push mortgage rates up, while bad drags them down.

When to lock anyway

You may wish to lock your loan anyway if you are buying a home and have a higher debt-to-income ratio than most. Indeed, you should be more inclined to lock because any rises in rates could kill your mortgage approval. If you’re refinancing, that’s less critical and you may be able to gamble and float.

If your closing is weeks or months away, the decision to lock or float becomes complicated. Obviously, if you know rates are rising, you want to lock in as soon as possible. However, the longer your lock, the higher your upfront costs. On the flip side, if a higher rate would wipe out your mortgage approval, you’ll probably want to lock in even if it costs more.

If you’re still floating, stay in close contact with your lender, and keep an eye on markets. I recommend:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• FLOAT if closing in 45 days
• FLOAT if closing in 60 days

» MORE: Show Me Today’s Rates (May 2, 2019)

This week

This looks set to be one of the hotter weeks for economic data. True, few reports are likely to affect markets much by themselves, although tomorrow’s official employment situation report is a definite exception. But many second-tier reports are due out, too. And, by the end of this week, investors may have a better feel for the underlying direction of the economy than they have this morning.

If analysts and investors find themselves tomorrow evening more pessimistic about the outlook for the American economy, expect lower mortgage rates. But if by then they’re more optimistic, higher rates are likely.

Forecasts matter

Markets tend to price in analysts’ consensus forecasts (below, we use those reported by MarketWatch) in advance of the publication of reports. So it’s usually the difference between the actual reported numbers and the forecast that has the greatest effect. That means even an extreme difference between actuals for the previous reporting period and this one can have little immediate impact, providing that difference is expected and has been factored in ahead. Although there are exceptions, you can usually expect downward pressure on mortgage rates from worse-than-expected figures and upward on better ones. However, for most reports, much of the time, that pressure may be imperceptible or barely perceptible.

Today’s data

This morning’s productivity data for the first quarter was much better than expected. Unit labor costs were lower. Factory orders numbers were good but were published too close to our deadline for us to assess their impact on markets.

• Monday: March numbers for personal income (actual +0.1 percent; forecast +0.4 percent), consumer spending (actual +0.9 percent; forecast +0.8 percent) and core inflation (actual 0.0 percent; forecast +0.1 percent)
• Tuesday:  employment cost index for the first quarter (actual +0.7 percent; forecast +0.7 percent) and the consumer confidence index for April (actual 129.2 points; forecast 126.6 points)
• Wednesday: April ISM manufacturing index (actual 52.8 percent; forecast 54.8 percent) and March construction spending (actual -0.9 percent; forecast -0.2 percent). Also, 2:00 p.m. (ET) statement and 2:30 p.m. press conference following FOMC meeting
  
• Thursday: First quarter productivity (actual +3.6 percent; forecast +2.8 percent) and unit labor costs (actual -0.9 percent; forecast +0.7 percent). Plus March factory orders (actual +1.90 percent; forecast +1.6 percent)
  
• Friday: April employment situation report, including nonfarm payrolls (forecast +190,000 jobs), unemployment rate (forecast 3.8 percent) and average hourly earnings (forecast +0.2 percent). Also March advance trade in goods (forecast 73.0 billion) and April ISM nonmanufacturing index (forecast 57.5 percent)
  

That’s a heavy schedule for one week. And, taken together, it’s one that could impact markets.

What causes rates to rise and fall?

Mortgage interest rates depend a great deal on the expectations of investors. Good economic news tends to be bad for interest rates because an active economy raises concerns about inflation. Inflation causes fixed-income investments like bonds to lose value, and that causes their yields (another way of saying interest rates) to increase.

For example, suppose that two years ago, you bought a $ 1,000 bond paying 5 percent interest ($ 50) each year. (This is called its “coupon rate” or “par rate” because you paid $ 1,000 for a $ 1,000 bond, and because its interest rate equals the rate stated on the bond — in this case, 5 percent).

• Your interest rate: $ 50 annual interest / $ 1,000 = 5.0%

When rates fall

That’s a pretty good rate today, so lots of investors want to buy it from you. You can sell your $ 1,000 bond for $ 1,200. The buyer gets the same $ 50 a year in interest that you were getting. It’s still 5 percent of the $ 1,000 coupon. However, because he paid more for the bond, his return is lower.

• Your buyer’s interest rate: $ 50 annual interest / $ 1,200 = 4.2%

The buyer gets an interest rate, or yield, of only 4.2 percent. And that’s why, when demand for bonds increases and bond prices go up, interest rates go down.

When rates rise

However, when the economy heats up, the potential for inflation makes bonds less appealing. With fewer people wanting to buy bonds, their prices decrease, and then interest rates go up.

Imagine that you have your $ 1,000 bond, but you can’t sell it for $ 1,000 because unemployment has dropped and stock prices are soaring. You end up getting $ 700. The buyer gets the same $ 50 a year in interest, but the yield looks like this:

• $ 50 annual interest / $ 700 = 7.1%

The buyer’s interest rate is now slightly more than seven percent. Interest rates and yields are not mysterious. You calculate them with simple math.

Show Me Today’s Rates (May 2, 2019)

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Mortgage Rates, Mortgage News and Strategy : The Mortgage Reports